Uncertainty and risk analysis in geology

Many times we do geological models and we trust in them blindly, forgetting that a model is just a conceptual simplified version of what we think can be the real stuff. As the paper I link today, quoting Loizou (2002), "Even in highly explored areas such as the North Atlantic margin of the UK, only one in five wells is successful".

"Structural models: optimising risk analysis by understanding conceptual uncertainty", published in First Break in June 2008 (volume 26) by Clare Bond, Zoe Shipton, Alan Gibbs and Serena Jones reviews the fundament of geology as an interpretation based science, how dependant it is on uncertainty and what does it mean in terms of risk analysis.

http://www.mve.com/assets/pdf/bondetalfirstbreak2008.pdf

Very worthy to take a look and stop to think... "How confident I am with my model"?

Midland Valley student structure prize

Alan Gibbs from of Midland Valley (MVE) has just posted that in the Geo-Tectonics mailing list, about their annual "Student structure prize".  Perhaps that fits to you?

"Hi everyone,

It’s that time of year again when we are starting to get entries for the Annual Midland Valley Student Structure Prize starting to roll in. I’m looking forward to reading this year’s batch and finding out what everyone is doing.

If you haven’t already done so can you please remind all your students that the Prize competition is open for entries until 12th December 2010.

The Prize seeks to reward outstanding pieces of structural geology by students with cash prizes of up to USD$2000.  The criteria is broad to cover the whole field of structure and there are three entry categories - Postgraduate (1st and 2nd places), Undergraduate (1st and 2nd places) and Overall Best use Of Move (1 prize).

Further information, including the rules for entry, can be found on the Midland Valley website http://www.mve.com/Academic/2010-prize.html or by emailing prize@mve.com.

Hope you all had a good summer (Northern Hemisphere) or winter for the rest!

Alan"

Thrust tectonics, edited by McClay. How to buy it?

I am trying to get a copy of the classic book edited by Ken McClay "Thrust tectonics", published by Chapman & Hall in 1991. We have a copy in our office, but I'd like to have in my private collection.

Anyone willing to sell his/hers? Do you know where I can buy it? In Amazon is currently unavailable (and I guess that won't change...).  Just comment in this post and I will get in contact with you.